Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W30-14 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W32-6 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L3-51 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W13-9 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W21-19 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W38-21 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L17-46 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | L23-28 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:15% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:11% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:35% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:18% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 1.0% | 68.2% |
| 5-3 | 11.7% | 4.1% |
| 4-4 | 42.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 44.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.2% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.1%) | 1.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (-1.0%) | 6.8% (+5.6%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.3%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.3% (+1.1%) | 1.0% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern Miss
Coastal CarolinaUL Monroe
Georgia State
LouisianaCCG: 18.4% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UL MonroeCCG: 6.8% • Scenario: 15.5%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
66.3%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
31.8%
2.2%
68.4%
0.9%
12.8%
0.2%2.4%
0.4%
2.4%
0.6%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03