Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
98.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W24-7 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W37-14 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | W42-14 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W49-7 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W44-10 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W45-28 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W20-3 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W14-3 | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:6% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:85% | |
| 12/14 | Win prob:66% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 56.5% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 38.6% | 97.0% |
| 7-2 | 4.9% | 88.3% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% (+1.7%) | 92.5% (-5.8%) | |
| 98.3% (+0.0%) | 98.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 98.0% (-0.2%) | 98.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 98.3% (+0.0%) | 98.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 98.3% (-0.0%) | 98.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 98.3% (+0.0%) | 98.3% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
TulaneCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 76.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TulaneCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 76.9%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
Charlotte
Florida AtlanticTulsaUAB
North TexasCharlotteData from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.5%Any 1 loss
99.9%
55.4%
100.0%
53.0%
100.0%
1.8%
89.0%
0.6%Any 2 losses
96.9%
36.5%100.0%
27.2%90.5%
0.3%87.8%
9.1%88.1%
4.6%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10