NavyMidshipmen

7-2 3rd (5-1) in AAC

Data from 2024-11-10 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

15.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsBucknellBUCK	W49-21
2	9/07	vsTempleTEM	W38-11
4	9/21	vsMemphisMEM	W56-44
5	9/28	@UABUAB	W41-18
6	10/05	@Air ForceAF	W34-7
8	10/19	vsCharlotteCLT	W51-17
9	10/26	vsNotre DameND(N)	L14-51
10	11/02	@RiceRICE	L10-24
11	11/09	@South FloridaUSF	W28-7
12	11/16	vsTulaneTULN	Win prob:23%
14	11/29	@East CarolinaECU	Win prob:61%
	12/14	vsArmyARMY(N)	Win prob:34%

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-1	4.8%	100.0%
7-2	28.4%	35.0%
6-3	47.1%	2.0%
5-4	19.7%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

Army

88.9%

Tulane

11.1%

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
TulaneTULN@NavyNAVY	0.0% (-15.7%)	67.7% (+52.0%)
East CarolinaECU@TulsaTLSA	15.7% (+0.1%)	15.0% (-0.6%)
UABUAB@MemphisMEM	15.8% (+0.2%)	15.7% (-0.0%)
North TexasUNT@UTSAUTSA	15.6% (-0.0%)	15.7% (+0.0%)
South FloridaUSF@CharlotteCLT	15.6% (-0.1%)	15.8% (+0.1%)
Florida AtlanticFAU@TempleTEM	15.8% (+0.2%)	15.5% (-0.2%)

Best Winner Combination for

Navy

Tulsa

UAB

UTSA

South Florida

Florida Atlantic

CCG: 75.8% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Navy

CCG: 67.7% • Scenario: 23.1%

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

4.8%

Any 1 loss

79.8%

12.4%

100.0%

9.4%

16.0%

3.0%

16.0%

5.9%

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com