American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-10
Conference Standings
| T1 |  ArmyARMY | 7-0 | 9-0 | 98.3% | |
| T1 |  TulaneTULN | 6-0 | 8-2 | 86.0% | |
| 3 |  NavyNAVY | 5-1 | 7-2 | 15.7% | |
| 4 |  MemphisMEM | 4-2 | 8-2 | <0.1% | |
| 5 |  East CarolinaECU | 3-2 | 5-4 | <0.1% | |
| T6 |  CharlotteCLT | 2-3 | 3-6 | - | |
| T6 |  North TexasUNT | 2-3 | 5-4 | - | |
| T6 |  South FloridaUSF | 2-3 | 4-5 | - | |
| T6 |  UTSAUTSA | 2-3 | 4-5 | - | |
| 10 |  RiceRICE | 2-4 | 3-7 | - | |
| T11 |  TempleTEM | 1-4 | 2-7 | - | |
| T11 |  TulsaTLSA | 1-4 | 3-6 | - | |
| T11 |  UABUAB | 1-4 | 2-7 | - | |
| 14 |  Florida AtlanticFAU | 0-5 | 2-7 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 98.3%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% (+1.7%) | 92.5% (-5.8%) | |
| 98.3% (+0.0%) | 98.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 98.0% (-0.2%) | 98.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 98.3% (+0.0%) | 98.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 98.3% (-0.0%) | 98.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 98.3% (+0.0%) | 98.3% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
TulaneCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 76.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TulaneCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 76.9%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
TulaneTulsaUABCharlotteFlorida AtlanticTulsaUABNorth TexasCharlotteData from 2024-11-10
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 8-0 | 7-2 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArmyARMY | 100% | 97.0% | - | 88.3% | - | - | - | 98.3% |
| TulaneTULN | - | - | 100% | - | 67.3% | - | - | 86.0% |
| NavyNAVY | - | 100% | - | 35.0% | - | - | 2.0% | 15.7% |
| MemphisMEM | - | - | - | - | - | 0.2% | - | <0.1% |
| East CarolinaECU | - | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | - | <0.1% |
| CharlotteCLT | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Florida AtlanticFAU | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| North TexasUNT | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| RiceRICE | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| South FloridaUSF | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TempleTEM | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TulsaTLSA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UABUAB | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UTSAUTSA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-11-10
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 8-0 | 7-2 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 6-3 | 5-3 | 5-4 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArmyARMY(7-0) | 56.5% | 38.6% | 0.0% | 4.9% | 0.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8.5 |
| TulaneTULN(6-0) | - | 0.0% | 64.9% | 0.0% | 31.5% | 3.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.6 |
| NavyNAVY(5-1) | - | 4.8% | - | 28.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 47.1% | 0.0% | 19.7% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.2 |
| MemphisMEM(4-2) | - | - | - | - | - | 14.4% | 0.0% | 78.8% | 0.0% | 6.8% | - | - | - | - | 5.1 |
| East CarolinaECU(3-2) | - | - | - | - | - | 12.6% | 0.0% | 43.9% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 3.5% | - | - | - | 4.7 |
| South FloridaUSF(2-3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 28.3% | 0.0% | 49.2% | 21.0% | 1.4% | - | - | 4.0 |
| North TexasUNT(2-3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 27.9% | 0.0% | 48.2% | 21.8% | 2.1% | - | - | 4.0 |
| UTSAUTSA(2-3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.8% | 0.0% | 47.2% | 42.7% | 3.3% | - | - | 3.6 |
| CharlotteCLT(2-3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 10.0% | 0.0% | 35.9% | 39.9% | 14.3% | - | - | 3.4 |
| RiceRICE(2-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 29.9% | 49.7% | 20.4% | - | - | 3.1 |
| UABUAB(1-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.5% | 21.4% | 47.9% | 29.2% | - | 2.0 |
| Florida AtlanticFAU(0-5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 18.0% | 42.1% | 32.3% | 7.7% | 1.7 |
| TempleTEM(1-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.4% | 8.5% | 46.8% | 44.4% | - | 1.6 |
| TulsaTLSA(1-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.2% | 5.5% | 38.4% | 55.9% | - | 1.5 |
Data from 2024-11-10