American Athletic Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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22 of 22 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
8-1 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	3.4%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	1.9%
9-0 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	1.1%
9-0 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	0.5%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	0.4%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY East CarolinaECU	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	0.4%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM NavyNAVY	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	0.3%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	0.3%
9-0 ArmyARMY 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 99.6%	0.3%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 97.6% ArmyARMYEast CarolinaECU 2.4%	0.1%
8-1 NavyNAVY 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	<0.1%
9-0 ArmyARMY 7-2 NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	<0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	<0.1%
7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	<0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 52.1% ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 47.9%	<0.1%
9-0 ArmyARMY 7-2 East CarolinaECU TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 96.4% ArmyARMYEast CarolinaECU 3.6%	<0.1%
7-2 ArmyARMY East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 75.0% ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 25.0%	<0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 91.7% ArmyARMYEast CarolinaECU 8.3%	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank / computer rankings → Common conference opponents → Overall winning percentage

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.