Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W45-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L12-23 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W31-3 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L31-38 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L28-34 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L21-43 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W59-35 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W38-28 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W37-34 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | W49-35 | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:79% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:46% |
Data from 2024-11-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | 36.7% | 2.0% |
| 5-4 | 51.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 11.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-17
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-17
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.8% (+0.1%) | 0.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.1%) | 0.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.3%) | 0.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.2%) | 0.0% (-0.7%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.3%) | 0.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.6%) | 1.4% (+0.6%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.3%) | 1.5% (+0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 8.7% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 1.7% • Scenario: 37.9%
Data from 2024-11-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
2.0%
36.7%Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17