Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
71.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W31-26 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L10-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-9 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W38-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W48-21 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L28-31 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W34-7 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W34-23 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W41-27 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | W49-24 | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:52% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2024-11-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 46.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 48.5% | 50.9% |
| 6-3 | 5.2% | 5.3% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-17
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-17
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 73.0% (+1.7%) | 68.2% (-3.1%) | |
| 84.1% (+12.8%) | 58.2% (-13.1%) | |
| 71.5% (+0.1%) | 71.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 71.5% (+0.2%) | 71.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 71.4% (+0.1%) | 70.9% (-0.4%) | |
| 75.0% (+3.7%) | 70.6% (-0.8%) | |
| 95.8% (+24.5%) | 44.9% (-26.5%) | |
| 67.7% (-3.6%) | 81.2% (+9.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 7.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 95.8% • Scenario: 51.9%
Ways for
to Clinch
CCG Spot This Week
Data from 2024-11-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
46.4%Any 1 loss
50.9%
48.5%60.8%
5.6%49.6%
42.9%5.3%
5.2%Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17