Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
40.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W41-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W30-24 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W35-24 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:71% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | W31-24 | |
| 9 | 10/23 | L24-27 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | L21-31 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W37-17 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | W35-34 | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:61% |
Data from 2024-11-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 40.5% | 100.0% |
| 5-3 | 46.4% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 13.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-17
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
94.0%
6.0%
Data from 2024-11-17
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 40.4% (-0.1%) | 40.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 40.6% (+0.1%) | 40.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 39.5% (-1.0%) | 40.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-40.5%) | 60.9% (+20.3%) | |
| 40.5% (-0.1%) | 40.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 40.6% (+0.0%) | 40.5% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Louisiana Tech
UTEPLiberty
Sam Houston
Kennesaw StateCCG: 66.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LibertyCCG: 60.9% • Scenario: 66.6%
Data from 2024-11-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
28.7%
100.0%
11.8%Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17