Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
43.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L0-63 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W49-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W26-21 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L20-21 | |
| 7 | 10/10 | W44-17 | |
| 8 | 10/16 | W31-14 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | W31-14 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W41-28 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | L7-12 | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:34% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:36% |
Data from 2024-11-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 12.0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 45.1% | 70.4% |
| 5-3 | 42.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-17
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-17
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 44.0% (+0.2%) | 43.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 43.8% (+0.1%) | 43.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 44.5% (+0.8%) | 43.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 95.9% (+52.2%) | 17.6% (-26.2%) | |
| 49.0% (+5.3%) | 42.7% (-1.0%) | |
| 43.8% (+0.1%) | 43.7% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Western Kentucky
Jacksonville StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 28.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Western KentuckyCCG: 95.9% • Scenario: 33.4%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
Western KentuckyJacksonville StateData from 2024-11-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
12.0%Any 1 loss
70.4%
45.1%93.7%
21.4%
49.4%
23.7%Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17