Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W30-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L0-38 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-3 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W23-20 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L3-47 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W30-15 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L41-48 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L16-47 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W41-30 | |
| 12 | 11/12 | W51-48 | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:41% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:93% |
Data from 2024-11-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 38.1% | 21.7% |
| 5-3 | 57.5% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 4.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-17
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-17
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 8.7% (+0.4%) | 7.2% (-1.0%) | |
| 8.9% (+0.7%) | 7.0% (-1.2%) | |
| 6.4% (-1.8%) | 18.7% (+10.4%) | |
| 19.9% (+11.6%) | 2.9% (-5.4%) | |
| 9.2% (+1.0%) | 7.3% (-1.0%) | |
| 20.0% (+11.8%) | 0.0% (-8.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Akron
Western Michigan
Ball State
Northern Illinois
ToledoBuffaloCCG: 94.5% • Scenario: 0.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Northern IllinoisBuffaloCCG: 48.2% • Scenario: 13.0%
Data from 2024-11-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
21.7%
38.1%Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17