Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
42.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-23 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W41-17 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L21-26 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W30-20 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L15-30 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W13-6 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L26-41 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W29-28 | |
| 12 | 11/12 | W37-10 | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:51% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:90% |
Data from 2024-11-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 45.4% | 93.5% |
| 5-3 | 49.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 4.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-17
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-17
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 42.4% (-0.0%) | 42.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 41.4% (-1.0%) | 44.3% (+1.9%) | |
| 42.7% (+0.2%) | 41.1% (-1.3%) | |
| 40.5% (-1.9%) | 43.3% (+0.9%) | |
| 0.0% (-42.4%) | 84.4% (+41.9%) | |
| 43.9% (+1.5%) | 41.4% (-1.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Akron
Central Michigan
Ball State
Northern IllinoisToledo
Eastern MichiganCCG: 92.2% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ToledoCCG: 84.4% • Scenario: 50.3%
Data from 2024-11-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
93.5%
45.4%Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17