Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
48.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L22-38 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W27-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W21-6 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L6-41 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W30-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W27-25 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L20-30 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W47-16 | |
| 11 | 11/06 | W41-0 | |
| 12 | 11/13 | W35-10 | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:49% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2024-11-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 46.8% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 50.3% | 3.6% |
| 5-3 | 2.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-17
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-17
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 48.6% (+0.1%) | 48.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 48.6% (+0.0%) | 48.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 47.5% (-1.1%) | 54.6% (+6.0%) | |
| 49.5% (+0.9%) | 48.1% (-0.4%) | |
| 95.0% (+46.4%) | 2.7% (-45.8%) | |
| 47.8% (-0.7%) | 49.1% (+0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kent State
Central Michigan
Ball StateOhio
Eastern MichiganCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OhioCCG: 95.0% • Scenario: 49.7%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
Central MichiganBall State
Northern IllinoisOhioEastern MichiganKent StateCentral MichiganBall StateOhioEastern MichiganData from 2024-11-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
46.8%Any 1 loss
3.6%
50.3%14.3%
2.9%
2.9%
47.4%Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17