Mid-American Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 91 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	4.9%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	4.4%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Miami (OH)M-OH	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 74.8% Bowling GreenBGSUOhioOHIO 25.2%	3.3%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	3.1%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	3.0%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	3.0%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	2.9%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	2.8%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Miami (OH)M-OH Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 74.5% Bowling GreenBGSUOhioOHIO 25.5%	2.1%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH	BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO	2.1%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	2.0%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL 99.0%	2.0%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	1.9%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL 75.9% BuffaloBUFToledoTOL 24.1%	1.9%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	1.9%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUWestern MichiganWMU 96.6% Bowling GreenBGSUOhioOHIO 3.4%	1.3%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO 75.5% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 24.5%	1.3%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	1.3%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain BuffaloBUFToledoTOL 93.5% Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL 6.5%	1.2%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU OhioOHIO	Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH	0.9%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	0.9%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	0.8%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO	Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH	0.8%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH 89.4% BuffaloBUFMiami (OH)M-OH 10.6%	0.6%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH	0.6%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	0.5%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH	0.5%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH 91.3% Bowling GreenBGSUOhioOHIO 8.5%	0.5%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO	0.5%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO	Bowling GreenBGSUBuffaloBUF	0.5%
7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	0.4%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	0.4%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH 77.1% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 14.6% Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU 8.2%	0.4%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	0.3%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH 59.1% BuffaloBUFMiami (OH)M-OH 40.9%	0.3%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU ToledoTOL	Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH	0.3%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUBuffaloBUF 99.4%	0.3%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH ToledoTOL	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	0.3%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO	0.3%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH 63.2% Bowling GreenBGSUBuffaloBUF 36.8%	0.3%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH	BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO	0.3%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO	Bowling GreenBGSUOhioOHIO	0.3%
7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	0.3%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Western MichiganWMU	Bowling GreenBGSUOhioOHIO	0.3%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	Bowling GreenBGSUWestern MichiganWMU	0.2%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	CCG participants not 100% certain BuffaloBUFToledoTOL 99.6%	0.2%
7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	CCG participants not 100% certain BuffaloBUFToledoTOL 65.5% Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL 34.5%	0.2%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF	BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO	0.2%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	0.2%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH	0.2%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → Common conference opponents → Next-highest opponent → Strength of schedule → Team Rating Score

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.