Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W45-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L12-23 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W31-3 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L31-38 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L28-34 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L21-43 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W59-35 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W38-28 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W37-34 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | W49-35 | |
| 13 | 11/23 | W20-10 | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:40% |
Data from 2024-11-24
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | 40.0% | 2.8% |
| 5-4 | 60.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-24
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-24
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1.0% (-0.1%) | 1.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.8% (+5.7%) | 0.6% (-0.5%) | |
| 5.7% (+4.6%) | 0.4% (-0.7%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.3%) | 1.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 2.2% (+1.1%) | 0.1% (-1.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-1.1%) | 2.8% (+1.7%) | |
| 0.1% (-1.0%) | 3.6% (+2.4%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.2%) | 0.7% (-0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 8.9% • Scenario: 11.6%
Ways for
to Clinch
CCG Spot This Week
Data from 2024-11-24
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
2.8%
40.0%Data from 2024-11-24
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-24