Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
17.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W31-26 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L10-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-9 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W38-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W48-21 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L28-31 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W34-7 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W34-23 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W41-27 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | W49-24 | |
| 13 | 11/23 | L21-37 | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:87% |
Data from 2024-11-24
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 86.7% | 20.0% |
| 6-3 | 13.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-24
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-24
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 17.4% (+0.1%) | 17.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 72.4% (+55.0%) | 12.1% (-5.3%) | |
| 0.0% (-17.3%) | 20.0% (+2.7%) | |
| 15.8% (-1.6%) | 18.6% (+1.2%) | |
| 30.9% (+13.5%) | 5.2% (-12.2%) | |
| 17.3% (-0.1%) | 17.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 5.8% (-11.6%) | 45.7% (+28.4%) | |
| 17.4% (+0.1%) | 17.2% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 4.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 12.1%
Ways for
to Clinch
CCG Spot This Week
Data from 2024-11-24
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
20.0%
86.7%Data from 2024-11-24
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-24