Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
59.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-23 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W41-17 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:68% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:73% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:72% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:57% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:75% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:78% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:71% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:92% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 10.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 28.8% | 99.9% |
| 6-2 | 32.1% | 60.7% |
| 5-3 | 19.5% | 3.8% |
| 4-4 | 7.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 59.2% (-0.5%) | 59.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 60.8% (+1.1%) | 59.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 60.9% (+1.1%) | 59.3% (-0.4%) | |
| 60.0% (+0.2%) | 59.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 59.8% (+0.1%) | 59.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 59.7% (-0.0%) | 59.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 59.6% (-0.2%) | 59.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 57.0% (-2.7%) | 59.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 59.5% (-0.2%) | 59.9% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Miami (OH)
Akron
Kent StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Notre Dame
Buffalo
Penn StateCCG: 60.9% • Scenario: 25.7%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
7.1%Any 1 loss
99.9%
23.1%
100.0%
3.6%100.0%
2.7%100.0%
0.6%
100.0%
3.0%100.0%
2.8%
99.9%
2.5%
99.9%
5.5%
99.8%
0.5%
99.8%
2.0%Any 2 losses
72.5%
31.0%100.0%
1.1%100.0%
1.3%100.0%
0.3%99.9%
1.4%99.9%
2.7%99.9%
1.3%99.6%
0.3%99.6%
0.9%88.9%
<0.1%85.9%
0.2%83.8%
0.2%80.0%
0.2%79.7%
0.1%75.5%
0.8%74.1%
0.2%73.1%
0.4%72.8%
1.5%71.9%
1.0%71.1%
0.5%70.0%
0.2%69.3%
0.3%68.6%
0.6%68.4%
0.1%67.0%
0.2%66.2%
0.7%65.6%
0.1%65.2%
1.1%64.9%
0.9%64.1%
0.8%63.7%
2.2%52.0%
1.9%50.7%
2.0%49.9%
2.3%48.3%
0.9%46.1%
1.1%46.1%
1.0%Any 3 losses
28.9%
23.5%100.0%
<0.1%84.3%
<0.1%81.4%
0.1%79.7%
<0.1%77.0%
0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.3%
0.1%75.0%
0.1%74.6%
0.3%73.1%
0.7%71.5%
0.5%69.2%
0.4%69.2%
<0.1%68.6%
0.4%67.5%
<0.1%67.3%
0.2%64.8%
0.1%64.7%
0.4%62.6%
0.4%62.4%
0.2%62.1%
0.6%61.7%
1.0%52.4%
1.0%51.1%
0.9%50.2%
0.4%49.2%
1.1%48.3%
0.4%46.3%
0.5%43.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.4%
0.3%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
0.6%5.1%
0.1%4.8%
0.3%4.8%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.7%
0.3%4.6%
0.5%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
0.3%4.4%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
0.7%3.8%
0.3%3.8%
0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.7%
0.8%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
0.4%3.4%
0.6%3.3%
0.3%3.2%
0.5%3.1%
0.9%3.0%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.1%
0.7%1.9%
0.8%1.8%
0.4%1.4%
0.4%1.3%
0.8%1.3%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
3.9%
6.3%50.0%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.7%
0.3%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
0.3%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.5%
0.3%4.1%
0.4%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.3%
0.5%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
0.2%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.5%
0.4%2.5%
0.2%2.5%
0.4%2.4%
<0.1%2.0%
0.4%2.0%
0.1%1.3%
0.3%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15