Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
30.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L0-63 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W49-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:33% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:32% | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:79% | |
| 8 | 10/16 | Win prob:42% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:59% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:56% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:76% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:20% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:61% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 8.1% | 99.4% |
| 6-2 | 23.0% | 72.5% |
| 5-3 | 32.1% | 14.0% |
| 4-4 | 23.9% | 0.1% |
| 3-5 | 9.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 30.2% (-0.0%) | 30.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 29.8% (-0.4%) | 30.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 30.1% (-0.1%) | 30.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 30.4% (+0.1%) | 30.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 30.2% (+0.0%) | 30.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 30.4% (+0.2%) | 30.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 31.9% (+1.6%) | 29.5% (-0.7%) | |
| 30.2% (-0.1%) | 30.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Middle Tennessee
Southern Miss
UTEP
Monmouth
Toledo
East Carolina
New Mexico State
TulsaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
New Mexico StateCCG: 31.9% • Scenario: 29.6%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
99.6%
1.3%100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
99.3%
0.4%
97.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
89.1%
6.4%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.9%99.3%
0.1%99.1%
0.9%98.7%
0.3%98.5%
0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.2%
0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.2%
0.4%85.5%
0.1%84.9%
<0.1%83.7%
<0.1%81.4%
<0.1%81.3%
0.1%80.5%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.2%
0.1%66.1%
0.3%60.2%
0.6%58.1%
0.3%57.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
66.8%
17.2%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%99.6%
0.3%99.6%
1.8%99.4%
0.3%98.5%
0.7%93.0%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%89.6%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.6%
0.2%87.0%
<0.1%86.7%
0.1%86.7%
0.2%86.7%
<0.1%86.5%
0.1%86.4%
<0.1%86.2%
0.7%85.7%
<0.1%85.1%
0.3%84.8%
0.2%83.8%
0.3%83.7%
0.7%83.0%
0.1%82.5%
0.1%82.0%
<0.1%81.8%
0.2%81.6%
<0.1%81.4%
0.1%81.0%
0.1%80.8%
0.1%80.0%
0.1%79.5%
<0.1%79.5%
0.3%75.1%
0.2%73.8%
0.2%73.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.3%
0.3%67.1%
0.5%62.2%
0.6%60.8%
1.2%60.7%
0.6%60.5%
0.6%58.8%
1.3%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.9%
<0.1%29.9%
0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.3%
0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
0.2%16.1%
<0.1%15.5%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.5%
0.5%14.5%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%14.0%
0.2%13.3%
0.2%9.0%
<0.1%8.7%
0.4%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.8%
0.4%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15