Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W30-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L0-38 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-3 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:27% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:69% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:28% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:78% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:27% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:77% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:79% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:51% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:92% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 4.5% | 95.1% |
| 6-2 | 17.0% | 33.7% |
| 5-3 | 31.1% | 0.7% |
| 4-4 | 29.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 13.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 10.0% (-0.7%) | 10.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.4% (-0.3%) | 10.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 24.7% (+14.1%) | 5.5% (-5.2%) | |
| 10.7% (+0.1%) | 10.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.6% (-0.0%) | 10.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.5% (-0.2%) | 10.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.8% (+0.1%) | 10.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.2% (-0.4%) | 10.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.8% (+0.1%) | 10.5% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Miami (OH)
Akron
Kent StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BuffaloCCG: 24.7% • Scenario: 26.9%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
95.7%
3.2%
100.0%
0.1%
98.7%
<0.1%
98.3%
0.3%
97.9%
<0.1%97.0%
0.1%
96.4%
0.9%95.8%
<0.1%
94.6%
0.8%
93.6%
0.9%Any 2 losses
40.3%
13.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%95.1%
0.1%95.0%
0.4%94.9%
0.3%91.3%
0.4%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%64.8%
<0.1%64.6%
<0.1%55.9%
0.2%54.2%
<0.1%52.8%
0.2%52.2%
0.3%51.7%
<0.1%51.5%
0.2%49.0%
0.8%48.1%
0.2%47.5%
0.3%45.4%
0.2%45.2%
0.3%44.1%
0.8%38.6%
0.2%37.6%
0.8%36.8%
<0.1%31.2%
2.2%20.3%
2.1%17.7%
2.2%Any 3 losses
10.5%
18.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%70.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%56.0%
0.1%52.6%
0.4%51.8%
<0.1%50.8%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
0.1%48.4%
<0.1%44.9%
<0.1%43.8%
0.4%43.5%
0.1%41.3%
0.1%39.4%
0.1%37.9%
<0.1%36.2%
0.4%30.9%
1.0%27.2%
<0.1%18.6%
1.0%17.1%
1.0%15.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
0.2%3.4%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.4%
0.2%2.2%
0.2%1.9%
0.2%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
0.6%1.5%
0.2%1.5%
0.2%1.4%
0.2%1.4%
0.2%1.2%
0.2%1.0%
0.7%1.0%
2.1%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
2.3%0.7%
2.1%0.6%
0.6%0.6%
0.6%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.7%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15