OhioBobcats

2-1 T1st (0-0) in MAC

Data from 2024-09-15 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

35.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	@SyracuseSYR	L22-38
2	9/07	vsSouth AlabamaUSA	W27-20
3	9/14	vsMorgan StateMORG	W21-6
4	9/21	@KentuckyUK	Win prob:29%
5	9/28	vsAkronAKR	Win prob:93%
7	10/12	@Central MichiganCMU	Win prob:81%
8	10/19	@Miami (OH)M-OH	Win prob:45%
9	10/26	vsBuffaloBUF	Win prob:73%
11	11/06	@Kent StateKENT	Win prob:93%
12	11/13	vsEastern MichiganEMU	Win prob:80%
13	11/20	@ToledoTOL	Win prob:29%
14	11/29	vsBall StateBALL	Win prob:88%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	5.0%	100.0%
7-1	22.5%	90.6%
6-2	36.0%	28.2%
5-3	25.4%	0.8%
4-4	9.1%	0%
3-5	1.8%	0%
2-6	0.2%	0%
1-7	0.0%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

43.3%

20.6%

18.9%

12.0%

5.2%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Miami (OH)M-OH@Notre DameND	36.1% (+0.4%)	35.7% (-0.0%)
AkronAKR@South CarolinaSC	36.5% (+0.8%)	35.7% (-0.0%)
BuffaloBUF@Northern IllinoisNIU	39.2% (+3.5%)	34.5% (-1.3%)
St. Francis (PA)SFPA@Eastern MichiganEMU	35.5% (-0.3%)	35.8% (+0.0%)
ToledoTOL@Western KentuckyWKU	35.8% (+0.0%)	35.7% (-0.1%)
OhioOHIO@KentuckyUK	35.8% (+0.1%)	35.7% (-0.0%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Texas A&MTA&M	35.6% (-0.1%)	35.8% (+0.0%)
Kent StateKENT@Penn StatePSU	38.3% (+2.6%)	35.7% (-0.0%)
Ball StateBALL@Central MichiganCMU	35.8% (+0.1%)	35.7% (-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Miami (OH)

Western Kentucky

Bowling Green

Kent State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Buffalo

CCG: 39.2% • Scenario: 26.9%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

1.5%

Any 1 loss

93.9%

10.0%

100.0%

3.5%

97.3%

0.1%

96.9%

0.4%

96.7%

<0.1%

95.7%

0.2%

94.5%

0.5%

93.9%

0.3%

92.0%

1.7%

87.8%

3.3%

Any 2 losses

65.9%

26.5%

96.9%

0.4%

96.7%

0.9%

96.0%

0.3%

95.8%

0.8%

94.4%

1.2%

94.3%

0.3%

91.4%

4.1%

87.7%

8.1%

84.6%

<0.1%

81.8%

<0.1%

79.4%

<0.1%

76.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

68.2%

<0.1%

65.0%

<0.1%

64.1%

<0.1%

63.6%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

56.4%

0.1%

54.6%

0.1%

50.4%

0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

48.5%

0.1%

45.1%

0.3%

43.2%

<0.1%

39.1%

0.2%

39.1%

0.3%

38.9%

0.4%

37.4%

0.4%

35.3%

0.6%

34.1%

0.8%

33.5%

0.4%

31.9%

0.8%

27.6%

<0.1%

22.8%

1.2%

14.2%

4.0%

Any 3 losses

26.4%

27.6%

69.3%

<0.1%

68.8%

0.1%

68.3%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

63.4%

0.1%

63.2%

<0.1%

62.2%

<0.1%

61.4%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

59.4%

0.1%

58.0%

0.2%

55.9%

0.3%

54.0%

0.3%

52.5%

0.1%

47.9%

0.2%

47.5%

0.3%

44.1%

0.7%

41.6%

0.3%

41.5%

1.0%

41.3%

1.0%

41.2%

0.5%

36.3%

1.1%

35.5%

1.6%

34.5%

2.1%

34.0%

0.7%

33.9%

1.8%

33.3%

<0.1%

24.9%

3.0%

13.5%

9.7%

11.1%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

8.7%

<0.1%

8.7%

<0.1%

7.4%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.4%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.2%

<0.1%

2.6%

0.1%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.2%

<0.1%

2.2%

<0.1%

2.0%

0.1%

2.0%

0.1%

1.1%

0.2%

0.9%

0.1%

0.9%

0.3%

0.7%

0.1%

0.6%

0.3%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com