Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-15
Conference Standings
| 1 |  San José StateSJSU | 1-0 | 3-0 | 51.5% | |
| T2 |  Fresno StateFRES | 0-0 | 2-1 | 60.5% | |
| T2 |  Boise StateBOIS | 0-0 | 1-1 | 48.9% | |
| T2 |  UNLVUNLV | 0-0 | 3-0 | 27.5% | |
| T2 |  Air ForceAF | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5.0% | |
| T2 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2.6% | |
| T2 |  WyomingWYO | 0-0 | 0-3 | 2.2% | |
| T2 |  Utah StateUSU | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0.8% | |
| T2 |  Colorado StateCSU | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0.4% | |
| T2 |  Hawai'iHAW | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0.2% | |
| T2 |  New MexicoUNM | 0-0 | 0-3 | 0.2% | |
| T2 |  NevadaNEV | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0.2% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 60.5%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 60.3% (-0.2%) | 60.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 62.7% (+2.2%) | 35.1% (-25.4%) | |
| 60.3% (-0.2%) | 60.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 60.8% (+0.3%) | 60.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 60.3% (-0.2%) | 60.8% (+0.3%) | |
| 61.3% (+0.8%) | 60.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 60.4% (-0.1%) | 60.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 60.1% (-0.4%) | 60.5% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
WyomingNew Mexico
Eastern WashingtonColorado State
Portland State
Northern IowaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Fresno StateCCG: 62.7% • Scenario: 92.0%
Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno StateFRES | 100% | 82.9% | 14.8% | 0.1% | 60.5% |
| San José StateSJSU | 100% | 99.4% | 34.1% | 0.4% | 51.5% |
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 82.8% | 13.9% | 0.1% | 48.9% |
| UNLVUNLV | 100% | 98.1% | 27.0% | 0.3% | 27.5% |
| Air ForceAF | - | 74.9% | 6.1% | <0.1% | 5.0% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 69.5% | 5.9% | <0.1% | 2.6% |
| WyomingWYO | 100% | 80.4% | 10.5% | <0.1% | 2.2% |
| Utah StateUSU | 100% | 62.6% | 4.1% | <0.1% | 0.8% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 70.6% | 7.9% | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| Hawai'iHAW | 100% | 82.3% | 10.5% | <0.1% | 0.2% |
| New MexicoUNM | 100% | 57.9% | 3.1% | - | 0.2% |
| NevadaNEV | - | 100% | 38.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 1-6 | 0-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno StateFRES(0-0) | 23.2% | 40.3% | 26.8% | 8.4% | 1.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.8 |
| Boise StateBOIS(0-0) | 13.9% | 36.7% | 33.5% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.5 |
| San José StateSJSU(1-0) | 7.9% | 30.9% | 37.8% | 19.0% | 4.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | - | 5.2 |
| UNLVUNLV(0-0) | 2.9% | 16.0% | 32.8% | 30.9% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| Air ForceAF(0-1) | - | 4.7% | 23.0% | 35.8% | 25.5% | 9.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 3.8 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.5% | 12.5% | 28.6% | 32.0% | 18.5% | 5.2% | 0.5% | 3.3 |
| WyomingWYO(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.5% | 8.8% | 23.5% | 32.7% | 23.6% | 8.6% | 1.3% | 3.0 |
| Utah StateUSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.9% | 5.6% | 18.9% | 31.7% | 28.1% | 12.7% | 2.2% | 2.7 |
| Colorado StateCSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 12.2% | 28.7% | 33.7% | 18.8% | 4.1% | 2.3 |
| Hawai'iHAW(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 8.6% | 25.1% | 35.5% | 23.5% | 5.8% | 2.1 |
| New MexicoUNM(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 9.4% | 23.3% | 32.9% | 24.3% | 7.6% | 2.1 |
| NevadaNEV(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 15.2% | 35.0% | 34.8% | 11.6% | 1.6 |
Data from 2024-09-15