Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L7-40 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L24-27 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L10-28 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:43% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:33% | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:21% | |
| 8 | 10/16 | Win prob:55% | |
| 9 | 10/22 | Win prob:39% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:59% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:35% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:1% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:32% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 98.8% |
| 6-2 | 1.3% | 68.7% |
| 5-3 | 6.8% | 12.9% |
| 4-4 | 18.7% | 0.1% |
| 3-5 | 29.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 27.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 13.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 2.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.9% (+0.0%) | 1.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.0% (+0.2%) | 1.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.1%) | 1.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.1%) | 1.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (+0.0%) | 1.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.0%) | 1.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.0% (+0.2%) | 1.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.1%) | 1.9% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Middle Tennessee
Jacksonville State
Colorado State
Monmouth
Toledo
East Carolina
New Mexico State
TulsaCCG: 25.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Colorado State
Florida International
Louisiana TechCCG: 2.0% • Scenario: 34.3%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15