Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L7-48 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L13-17 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L14-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:39% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:37% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:52% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:12% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:67% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:59% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:55% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:18% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:13% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 1.5% | 80.4% |
| 5-2 | 8.8% | 10.5% |
| 4-3 | 23.5% | 0.1% |
| 3-4 | 32.7% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 23.6% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 8.6% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 1.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2.1% (-0.1%) | 2.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 2.1% (-0.1%) | 3.8% (+1.6%) | |
| 2.1% (-0.1%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (-0.0%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (+0.0%) | 2.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.1% (-0.2%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (-0.0%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.1% (-0.1%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 3.8% • Scenario: 8.0%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
84.3%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15