Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-22
Conference Standings
| T1 |  LibertyLIB | 2-0 | 4-0 | 80.9% | |
| T1 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 1-0 | 3-1 | 33.9% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 1-0 | 3-1 | 27.0% | |
| T4 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 0-0 | 1-3 | 31.6% | |
| T4 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 0-0 | 0-3 | 19.2% | |
| T4 |  Louisiana TechLT | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3.3% | |
| T4 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 0-0 | 1-3 | 1.6% | |
| T4 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-1 | 0-4 | 1.1% | |
| T4 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 0-2 | 1-3 | 0.9% | |
| T4 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-1 | 1-3 | 0.3% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 80.9%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 80.9% (-0.1%) | 81.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 81.2% (+0.3%) | 80.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 81.1% (+0.2%) | 80.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 80.8% (-0.1%) | 81.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 81.0% (+0.1%) | 80.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 80.8% (-0.1%) | 81.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 80.8% (-0.1%) | 81.1% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Texas State
New Mexico
UT MartinMiddle TennesseeFlorida International
App StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
New Mexico
MemphisCCG: 81.3% • Scenario: 31.6%
Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB | 100% | 99.6% | 71.4% | 9.9% | - | 80.9% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | 100% | 98.9% | 67.3% | 9.6% | <0.1% | 33.9% |
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 99.1% | 66.5% | 9.4% | <0.1% | 31.6% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 99.0% | 64.0% | 8.5% | <0.1% | 27.0% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 99.0% | 67.6% | 9.4% | <0.1% | 19.2% |
| Louisiana TechLT | 100% | 97.3% | 57.2% | 6.5% | <0.1% | 3.3% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | 100% | 99.4% | 65.4% | 7.6% | <0.1% | 1.6% |
| UTEPUTEP | - | 98.5% | 58.5% | 8.0% | <0.1% | 1.1% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | - | 54.0% | 6.1% | <0.1% | 0.9% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | 100% | 60.8% | 7.1% | <0.1% | 0.3% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB(2-0) | 21.3% | 38.9% | 27.9% | 9.9% | 1.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | - | - | 6.7 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(1-0) | 1.9% | 11.3% | 26.4% | 31.3% | 20.3% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% | - | 5.2 |
| Jacksonville StateJXST(0-0) | 1.6% | 10.3% | 25.4% | 31.2% | 21.2% | 8.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.1 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(1-0) | 1.1% | 8.3% | 23.5% | 32.3% | 23.7% | 9.3% | 1.8% | 0.1% | - | 4.9 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(0-0) | 0.6% | 5.2% | 16.1% | 27.2% | 27.3% | 16.5% | 5.8% | 1.1% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| Louisiana TechLT(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.4% | 12.0% | 24.7% | 29.8% | 20.7% | 7.6% | 1.2% | 3.2 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(0-2) | - | - | 0.9% | 7.5% | 22.8% | 33.1% | 24.9% | 9.6% | 1.4% | 2.9 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 6.8% | 18.8% | 29.7% | 27.4% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 2.8 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 1.0% | 5.5% | 17.1% | 29.6% | 28.9% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 2.6 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 10.0% | 24.3% | 32.8% | 23.5% | 6.8% | 2.2 |
Data from 2024-09-22