Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
29.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-17 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W20-12 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L44-56 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:94% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:74% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:81% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:95% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:73% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:92% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 15.6% | 95.3% |
| 6-2 | 38.0% | 38.5% |
| 5-3 | 31.6% | 0.9% |
| 4-4 | 12.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 29.8% (+0.1%) | 29.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 28.9% (-0.8%) | 29.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 32.0% (+2.3%) | 28.4% (-1.3%) | |
| 27.9% (-1.8%) | 33.6% (+3.9%) | |
| 30.6% (+0.9%) | 29.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 28.7% (-1.1%) | 35.9% (+6.1%) | |
| 31.9% (+2.2%) | 29.1% (-0.6%) | |
| 29.6% (-0.1%) | 29.8% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Wagner
Tulsa
East Carolina
UAB
Middle Tennessee
South FloridaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UABCCG: 33.6% • Scenario: 32.2%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
95.3%
14.5%Any 1 loss
40.1%
36.5%96.0%
1.0%
55.1%
1.2%
53.4%
0.7%51.6%
1.6%
45.9%
5.3%
42.9%
3.6%41.3%
5.1%
31.8%
18.0%Any 2 losses
3.8%
30.9%53.2%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%49.5%
0.1%47.0%
0.4%40.2%
0.4%37.4%
0.2%32.1%
1.2%4.9%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.1%
0.9%1.9%
0.3%1.7%
0.5%1.5%
0.3%1.4%
0.6%1.2%
0.3%1.2%
1.8%1.1%
1.6%0.9%
0.5%0.9%
1.3%0.9%
6.5%0.8%
1.9%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
0.4%0.6%
4.3%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
6.5%Any 3 losses
1.5%
1.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%1.7%
0.4%1.1%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22