Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L16-28 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L10-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L10-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:49% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:70% | |
| 9 | 10/23 | Win prob:30% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:39% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:68% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:51% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:76% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:63% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 5.2% | 99.0% |
| 6-2 | 16.1% | 67.6% |
| 5-3 | 27.2% | 9.4% |
| 4-4 | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 16.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 19.2% (+0.0%) | 19.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.1% (-0.1%) | 19.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 18.8% (-0.4%) | 19.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 19.2% (-0.0%) | 19.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.1% (-0.1%) | 19.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 18.8% (-0.4%) | 19.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 19.3% (+0.1%) | 19.0% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam Houston
New Mexico
UT Martin
Boston College
Middle Tennessee
Florida International
App StateCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Florida InternationalCCG: 19.6% • Scenario: 50.3%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.6%Any 1 loss
99.0%
4.7%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%
99.2%
0.9%
98.8%
1.4%98.6%
0.6%
97.6%
0.7%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22