Western KentuckyHilltoppers

3-1 T1st (1-0) in CUSA

Data from 2024-09-22 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

27.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	@AlabamaALA	L0-63
2	9/07	vsEastern KentuckyEKU	W31-0
3	9/14	@Middle TennesseeMTSU	W49-21
4	9/21	vsToledoTOL	W26-21
5	9/28	@Boston CollegeBC	Win prob:34%
7	10/10	vsUTEPUTEP	Win prob:82%
8	10/16	@Sam HoustonSHSU	Win prob:39%
10	10/30	vsKennesaw StateKENN	Win prob:61%
11	11/09	@New Mexico StateNMSU	Win prob:63%
12	11/16	vsLouisiana TechLT	Win prob:79%
13	11/23	@LibertyLIB	Win prob:21%
14	11/30	vsJacksonville StateJXST	Win prob:52%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	1.1%	100.0%
7-1	8.3%	99.0%
6-2	23.5%	64.0%
5-3	32.3%	8.5%
4-4	23.7%	0.0%
3-5	9.3%	0%
2-6	1.8%	0%
1-7	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

69.1%

12.7%

10.5%

6.8%

0.9%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Texas StateTXST@Sam HoustonSHSU	26.9% (-0.1%)	27.1% (+0.1%)
New MexicoUNM@New Mexico StateNMSU	27.1% (+0.1%)	26.9% (-0.1%)
UT MartinUTM@Kennesaw StateKENN	26.9% (-0.1%)	27.0% (+0.0%)
Western KentuckyWKU@Boston CollegeBC	27.1% (+0.1%)	27.0% (-0.1%)
Middle TennesseeMTSU@MemphisMEM	26.3% (-0.7%)	27.0% (+0.1%)
Louisiana TechLT@Florida InternationalFIU	26.9% (-0.1%)	27.1% (+0.1%)
LibertyLIB@App StateAPP	27.0% (-0.0%)	27.0% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Sam Houston

New Mexico State

UT Martin

Western Kentucky

Middle Tennessee

Florida International

App State

CCG: 66.7% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Sam Houston

New Mexico

Memphis

CCG: 28.1% • Scenario: 11.2%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.4%

Any 1 loss

99.1%

3.5%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.2%

99.4%

0.3%

98.6%

0.6%

98.6%

1.3%

98.3%

0.2%

Any 2 losses

78.2%

13.4%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

0.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.4%

0.2%

99.2%

2.6%

99.1%

0.6%

98.7%

1.1%

98.6%

0.4%

94.7%

<0.1%

93.0%

<0.1%

89.5%

0.8%

88.8%

0.1%

88.4%

0.3%

87.9%

<0.1%

82.9%

0.3%

82.4%

0.1%

81.2%

0.4%

80.5%

0.1%

79.7%

<0.1%

76.9%

<0.1%

76.0%

0.2%

73.7%

<0.1%

68.3%

0.3%

64.1%

0.2%

60.7%

0.8%

56.7%

0.5%

48.1%

2.1%

47.7%

1.2%

Any 3 losses

41.3%

26.4%

97.6%

<0.1%

93.4%

0.1%

92.5%

<0.1%

90.6%

0.3%

89.9%

0.6%

88.8%

<0.1%

88.2%

1.5%

85.0%

0.1%

84.9%

0.6%

81.2%

0.2%

80.9%

0.7%

79.0%

0.4%

78.5%

0.3%

75.9%

0.1%

74.2%

0.2%

68.0%

0.7%

63.2%

0.4%

60.3%

1.7%

56.6%

1.0%

52.9%

<0.1%

50.1%

4.1%

45.9%

2.4%

45.5%

<0.1%

30.6%

0.2%

29.6%

0.2%

27.3%

<0.1%

27.3%

<0.1%

22.9%

<0.1%

18.6%

<0.1%

17.5%

<0.1%

16.3%

<0.1%

16.0%

<0.1%

15.5%

<0.1%

13.6%

0.5%

13.5%

0.2%

13.1%

0.2%

12.5%

0.1%

12.4%

0.2%

11.0%

0.7%

10.9%

0.2%

10.2%

1.2%

9.6%

0.5%

9.3%

0.1%

8.7%

0.6%

8.5%

<0.1%

8.2%

0.3%

8.0%

<0.1%

8.0%

<0.1%

7.4%

0.3%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.2%

<0.1%

5.1%

0.1%

4.0%

0.8%

3.9%

0.3%

3.6%

1.4%

2.6%

1.9%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com