Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
80.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W41-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W30-24 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W35-24 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:72% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:91% | |
| 9 | 10/23 | Win prob:70% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:88% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:94% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:79% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:64% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 21.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 38.9% | 99.6% |
| 6-2 | 27.9% | 71.4% |
| 5-3 | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| 4-4 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 80.9% (-0.1%) | 81.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 81.2% (+0.3%) | 80.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 81.1% (+0.2%) | 80.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 80.8% (-0.1%) | 81.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 81.0% (+0.1%) | 80.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 80.8% (-0.1%) | 81.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 80.8% (-0.1%) | 81.1% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Texas State
New Mexico
UT Martin
Middle Tennessee
Florida International
App StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
New Mexico
MemphisCCG: 81.3% • Scenario: 31.6%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
14.4%Any 1 loss
99.7%
33.1%100.0%
1.9%100.0%
5.7%
100.0%
0.9%100.0%
1.4%
99.8%
6.3%
99.7%
3.8%
99.5%
8.1%
99.4%
5.0%Any 2 losses
82.4%
31.1%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%99.8%
2.4%99.7%
0.4%99.6%
3.1%99.6%
0.2%99.5%
1.5%99.4%
1.9%99.3%
0.3%99.1%
0.5%97.4%
0.1%91.9%
0.8%89.3%
0.7%89.3%
1.1%89.2%
0.6%88.3%
0.5%87.2%
0.5%86.8%
0.8%84.2%
0.4%69.4%
2.0%68.4%
1.6%67.9%
3.6%59.7%
1.3%59.1%
2.8%58.6%
2.2%Any 3 losses
46.3%
15.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.9%
0.2%98.9%
<0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.6%
<0.1%98.2%
0.1%93.5%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.8%
0.2%90.6%
<0.1%89.1%
0.2%88.9%
0.3%88.9%
<0.1%88.7%
<0.1%88.7%
0.4%88.6%
<0.1%88.6%
0.2%86.0%
0.3%85.9%
0.2%85.6%
0.2%83.6%
<0.1%71.0%
0.1%69.8%
0.1%69.4%
1.4%69.1%
0.2%67.8%
0.8%66.9%
0.7%62.0%
<0.1%61.7%
0.1%60.7%
0.5%60.0%
0.8%58.3%
1.0%56.1%
0.2%35.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%22.1%
<0.1%18.8%
0.2%15.9%
0.3%15.5%
0.2%15.0%
0.4%14.6%
0.1%13.8%
0.2%13.4%
0.3%13.1%
0.4%12.3%
0.1%11.2%
0.2%11.1%
0.3%11.1%
0.3%5.7%
0.6%5.1%
0.9%4.9%
1.2%3.3%
0.7%Any 4 losses
18.7%
3.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.8%
<0.1%69.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%63.5%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.5%
0.1%18.2%
0.2%17.4%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%14.9%
0.1%14.7%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%7.6%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.4%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.4%2.2%
0.3%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22