Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
27.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W34-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L33-41 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-38 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:90% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:79% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:55% | |
| 10 | 10/29 | Win prob:43% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:83% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:51% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:62% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:80% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 15.9% | 70.1% |
| 6-2 | 29.6% | 33.9% |
| 5-3 | 28.8% | 9.7% |
| 4-4 | 16.0% | 1.8% |
| 3-5 | 5.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 25.1% (-2.6%) | 29.9% (+2.2%) | |
| 27.7% (+0.0%) | 27.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 27.7% (+0.0%) | 27.2% (-0.5%) | |
| 27.1% (-0.6%) | 28.0% (+0.3%) | |
| 29.1% (+1.4%) | 15.6% (-12.1%) | |
| 26.8% (-0.9%) | 30.8% (+3.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Texas State
Marshall
UL Monroe
Old Dominion
Southern Miss
Arkansas StateCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TroyLouisianaCCG: 31.3% • Scenario: 48.0%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.4%Any 1 loss
70.1%
15.9%
100.0%
0.9%
100.0%
2.9%100.0%
0.4%93.2%
0.7%92.5%
0.8%89.0%
2.1%57.0%
4.7%
29.3%
3.4%Any 2 losses
34.0%
29.6%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.1%99.7%
0.3%93.8%
0.2%92.8%
0.3%92.5%
0.6%91.7%
0.7%91.3%
1.7%89.5%
0.6%59.9%
1.3%59.3%
3.9%42.3%
<0.1%35.4%
0.1%32.6%
0.9%30.6%
2.9%25.2%
0.2%23.9%
0.2%21.5%
0.5%16.9%
0.4%15.9%
0.5%11.1%
0.3%10.5%
1.0%7.0%
1.2%4.9%
0.8%4.1%
0.7%3.6%
2.8%1.6%
2.1%0.9%
4.6%Any 3 losses
14.3%
19.6%100.0%
<0.1%93.2%
0.1%91.0%
0.2%90.4%
0.4%61.5%
1.1%48.5%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%31.6%
0.8%28.4%
0.2%22.6%
0.1%22.4%
0.2%21.8%
<0.1%21.5%
0.4%21.1%
0.1%18.0%
<0.1%15.4%
0.4%13.2%
0.4%13.0%
0.1%12.3%
0.1%11.9%
0.3%11.6%
0.8%11.5%
0.3%8.9%
0.9%8.2%
0.3%6.8%
0.1%6.4%
0.3%5.3%
0.6%5.3%
0.7%5.1%
0.7%4.2%
2.3%3.3%
1.7%3.0%
0.5%1.0%
1.1%0.7%
3.8%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29