Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
55.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W63-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W42-16 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W42-10 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-34 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:98% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:91% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:54% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:86% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:68% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:73% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 19.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 40.0% | 80.8% |
| 6-2 | 29.1% | 11.7% |
| 5-3 | 9.5% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 55.6% (+0.1%) | 55.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 55.0% (-0.5%) | 56.3% (+0.9%) | |
| 55.3% (-0.2%) | 55.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 55.2% (-0.3%) | 55.8% (+0.4%) | |
| 55.0% (-0.4%) | 60.6% (+5.2%) | |
| 56.0% (+0.6%) | 24.8% (-30.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Auburn
South Carolina
Florida
Missouri
ArkansasAlabamaCCG: 70.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaCCG: 56.0% • Scenario: 98.2%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
17.7%Any 1 loss
81.9%
38.0%
100.0%
2.0%99.0%
0.8%97.3%
1.7%
90.2%
0.3%
87.8%
6.6%87.6%
2.7%
80.5%
8.6%
74.1%
15.4%Any 2 losses
20.8%
30.2%98.5%
<0.1%97.2%
0.2%93.8%
<0.1%87.2%
0.7%86.3%
0.3%79.0%
0.9%74.3%
1.8%51.5%
<0.1%37.1%
<0.1%35.3%
0.3%29.1%
<0.1%28.2%
0.3%27.4%
<0.1%26.6%
0.6%26.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
0.4%22.2%
0.2%19.9%
1.1%17.5%
0.8%14.7%
3.2%13.1%
1.4%12.9%
0.6%12.8%
1.4%10.4%
0.3%9.2%
5.7%8.3%
2.4%6.7%
7.3%Any 3 losses
11.6%
2.9%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%16.8%
0.1%14.9%
0.2%14.1%
0.2%13.8%
<0.1%12.7%
0.4%10.4%
0.2%9.2%
0.7%7.9%
<0.1%5.9%
0.8%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29