Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
66.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-23 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W41-17 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L21-26 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:73% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:84% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:58% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:74% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:76% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:77% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 13.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 32.0% | 99.9% |
| 6-2 | 31.4% | 64.1% |
| 5-3 | 17.0% | 4.1% |
| 4-4 | 5.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 65.7% (-0.2%) | 66.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 65.7% (-0.3%) | 67.8% (+1.9%) | |
| 65.6% (-0.4%) | 66.5% (+0.5%) | |
| 40.9% (-25.1%) | 75.2% (+9.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Massachusetts
Akron
Ball StateToledoCCG: 79.2% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ToledoCCG: 75.2% • Scenario: 73.1%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
13.1%Any 1 loss
99.9%
32.0%
100.0%
4.6%
100.0%
4.8%
99.9%
1.1%
99.9%
2.6%
99.9%
4.0%
99.9%
9.7%99.8%
0.9%
99.7%
4.3%Any 2 losses
64.1%
31.4%93.8%
<0.1%81.1%
0.2%80.8%
0.3%77.9%
0.3%77.8%
0.3%76.1%
0.7%75.2%
0.3%74.6%
0.8%74.5%
3.0%73.4%
0.2%72.7%
0.4%72.3%
0.3%70.1%
0.9%69.3%
1.8%67.3%
0.3%66.5%
0.8%66.1%
3.4%65.6%
0.4%64.1%
0.9%63.7%
3.5%62.0%
2.9%61.9%
0.8%61.6%
1.4%58.5%
1.6%57.1%
1.3%49.6%
1.7%47.9%
1.5%47.3%
1.4%Any 3 losses
4.1%
17.0%23.1%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.2%
0.1%9.0%
0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.4%
0.2%7.3%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%6.8%
0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.4%
0.2%6.3%
0.1%6.1%
0.3%6.1%
0.6%6.0%
0.3%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.3%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
0.7%5.2%
0.3%5.1%
0.1%5.1%
0.7%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
0.3%5.0%
0.1%4.8%
0.3%4.7%
0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.5%
0.2%4.4%
0.5%4.3%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
1.1%4.1%
0.3%4.1%
0.2%3.7%
0.5%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
0.4%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
1.2%3.2%
0.9%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
0.5%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
1.1%2.8%
0.5%2.5%
1.3%2.1%
0.9%2.1%
0.3%2.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.5%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29