Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-29

Conference Standings


T1	South AlabamaUSA	1-0	2-3	39.5%
T1	Georgia SouthernGASO	1-0	3-2	2.9%
T1	UL MonroeULM	1-0	3-1	2.3%
T4	James MadisonJMU	0-0	4-0	88.5%
T4	LouisianaUL	0-0	3-1	27.7%
T4	Texas StateTXST	0-0	2-2	22.5%
T4	TroyTROY	0-1	1-4	6.3%
T4	Coastal CarolinaCCU	0-0	3-1	3.9%
T4	Old DominionODU	0-0	1-3	1.8%
T4	Arkansas StateARST	0-0	2-2	1.7%
T4	App StateAPP	0-1	2-2	1.6%
T4	MarshallMRSH	0-0	2-2	1.1%
T4	Georgia StateGAST	0-1	2-2	0.2%
T4	Southern MissUSM	0-0	1-3	<0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Matchups

134.8%

224.6%

319.9%

45.6%

52.1%

61.5%

71.5%

81.2%

91.1%

100.9%

110.7%

120.7%

130.7%

140.7%

150.5%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 88.5%

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Texas StateTXST@TroyTROY	88.3% (-0.1%)	88.6% (+0.1%)
App StateAPP@MarshallMRSH	88.0% (-0.5%)	88.9% (+0.4%)
James MadisonJMU@UL MonroeULM	88.5% (-0.0%)	88.9% (+0.4%)
Old DominionODU@Coastal CarolinaCCU	88.7% (+0.2%)	88.4% (-0.1%)
LouisianaUL@Southern MissUSM	88.6% (+0.1%)	87.9% (-0.6%)
South AlabamaUSA@Arkansas StateARST	88.5% (-0.0%)	88.6% (+0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Troy

App State

UL Monroe

Old Dominion

Southern Miss

South Alabama

CCG: 95.5% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Marshall

Louisiana

CCG: 89.0% • Scenario: 51.6%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	4-4	Overall
James MadisonJMU	100%	80.6%	32.6%	7.7%	-	88.5%
South AlabamaUSA	100%	64.3%	18.2%	2.7%	-	39.5%
LouisianaUL	100%	70.1%	33.9%	9.7%	1.8%	27.7%
Texas StateTXST	100%	65.9%	24.1%	5.9%	0.9%	22.5%
TroyTROY	-	98.2%	26.6%	6.4%	1.1%	6.3%
Coastal CarolinaCCU	100%	32.3%	14.7%	5.1%	0.6%	3.9%
Georgia SouthernGASO	100%	51.2%	24.3%	8.3%	0.8%	2.9%
UL MonroeULM	100%	89.2%	54.7%	22.2%	3.7%	2.3%
Old DominionODU	100%	45.8%	15.7%	4.1%	0.4%	1.8%
Arkansas StateARST	100%	70.3%	22.3%	5.5%	1.1%	1.7%
App StateAPP	-	100%	50.3%	18.0%	1.6%	1.6%
MarshallMRSH	100%	24.1%	4.1%	0.5%	<0.1%	1.1%
Georgia StateGAST	-	92.9%	14.7%	2.5%	0.2%	0.2%
Southern MissUSM	-	100%	42.9%	15.5%	2.8%	<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Final Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	4-4	3-5	2-6	1-7	0-8	Avg Wins
James MadisonJMU(0-0)	60.7%	31.6%	6.8%	0.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.5
South AlabamaUSA(1-0)	12.1%	32.6%	32.9%	17.0%	4.7%	0.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	-	6.3
Texas StateTXST(0-0)	3.1%	15.5%	30.1%	29.5%	16.1%	4.7%	0.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	5.4
LouisianaUL(0-0)	3.4%	15.9%	29.6%	28.8%	16.0%	5.3%	1.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	5.4
TroyTROY(0-1)	-	1.6%	10.2%	25.8%	32.1%	21.4%	7.6%	1.3%	<0.1%	4.1
Coastal CarolinaCCU(0-0)	0.1%	2.2%	10.9%	24.1%	29.7%	21.6%	9.1%	2.1%	0.2%	4.1
MarshallMRSH(0-0)	<0.1%	1.8%	9.7%	23.6%	30.6%	22.6%	9.4%	2.1%	0.2%	4.0
Georgia SouthernGASO(1-0)	<0.1%	0.6%	4.4%	15.6%	30.3%	30.3%	15.6%	3.1%	-	3.6
Old DominionODU(0-0)	<0.1%	0.8%	4.7%	15.1%	26.4%	28.1%	17.9%	6.2%	0.9%	3.4
Arkansas StateARST(0-0)	<0.1%	0.3%	2.8%	10.9%	24.0%	30.9%	22.1%	8.0%	1.1%	3.1
UL MonroeULM(1-0)	0.0%	<0.1%	0.7%	5.3%	19.1%	36.8%	31.1%	6.8%	-	2.9
App StateAPP(0-1)	-	<0.1%	0.7%	5.3%	17.5%	30.5%	29.1%	14.2%	2.6%	2.7
Georgia StateGAST(0-1)	-	<0.1%	0.4%	3.7%	14.3%	29.0%	31.3%	17.4%	3.8%	2.5
Southern MissUSM(0-0)	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	1.0%	6.5%	22.9%	40.8%	28.6%	1.1

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com