UL MonroeWarhawks

3-1 T1st (1-0) in SBC

Data from 2024-09-29 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsJackson StateJKST	W30-14
2	9/07	vsUABUAB	W32-6
4	9/21	@TexasTEX	L3-51
5	9/28	@TroyTROY	W13-9
6	10/05	vsJames MadisonJMU	Win prob:4%
7	10/12	vsSouthern MissUSM	Win prob:75%
9	10/26	@South AlabamaUSA	Win prob:9%
10	11/02	@MarshallMRSH	Win prob:27%
11	11/09	vsTexas StateTXST	Win prob:20%
12	11/16	@AuburnAUB	Win prob:11%
13	11/23	@Arkansas StateARST	Win prob:32%
14	11/30	vsLouisianaUL	Win prob:20%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0%	100.0%
7-1	0.0%	89.2%
6-2	0.7%	54.7%
5-3	5.3%	22.2%
4-4	19.1%	3.7%
3-5	36.8%	0%
2-6	31.1%	0%
1-7	6.8%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

90.0%

3.5%

3.1%

2.2%

1.3%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Texas StateTXST@TroyTROY	1.8% (-0.5%)	2.8% (+0.4%)
App StateAPP@MarshallMRSH	2.3% (-0.0%)	2.4% (+0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@UL MonroeULM	2.3% (-0.0%)	2.7% (+0.3%)
Old DominionODU@Coastal CarolinaCCU	2.3% (-0.0%)	2.3% (+0.0%)
LouisianaUL@Southern MissUSM	2.3% (-0.0%)	2.6% (+0.3%)
South AlabamaUSA@Arkansas StateARST	2.1% (-0.2%)	3.2% (+0.8%)

Best Winner Combination for

Troy

Marshall

UL Monroe

Coastal Carolina

Southern Miss

Arkansas State

CCG: 16.7% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Troy

CCG: 2.8% • Scenario: 53.6%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Any 1 loss

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

75.2%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

58.6%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

41.8%

1.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.0%

<0.1%

67.9%

<0.1%

64.6%

<0.1%

63.0%

<0.1%

58.3%

<0.1%

51.3%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

49.7%

0.2%

45.5%

<0.1%

45.2%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

38.5%

<0.1%

30.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

14.9%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

7.3%

<0.1%

5.5%

0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com