MarshallThundering Herd

2-2 T4th (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2024-09-29 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsStony BrookSTBK	W45-3
2	9/07	@Virginia TechVT	L14-31
4	9/21	@Ohio StateOSU	L14-49
5	9/28	vsWestern MichiganWMU	W27-20
6	10/05	vsApp StateAPP	Win prob:57%
7	10/12	@Georgia SouthernGASO	Win prob:41%
8	10/17	vsGeorgia StateGAST	Win prob:63%
10	11/02	vsUL MonroeULM	Win prob:73%
11	11/09	@Southern MissUSM	Win prob:76%
12	11/16	vsCoastal CarolinaCCU	Win prob:46%
13	11/23	@Old DominionODU	Win prob:40%
14	11/30	@James MadisonJMU	Win prob:5%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.1%	100.0%
7-1	1.8%	24.1%
6-2	9.7%	4.1%
5-3	23.6%	0.5%
4-4	30.6%	0.1%
3-5	22.6%	0%
2-6	9.4%	0%
1-7	2.1%	0%
0-8	0.2%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

39.4%

29.8%

23.1%

5.8%

1.9%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Texas StateTXST@TroyTROY	1.1% (+0.0%)	1.1% (+0.0%)
App StateAPP@MarshallMRSH	0.3% (-0.7%)	1.6% (+0.5%)
James MadisonJMU@UL MonroeULM	1.1% (+0.0%)	0.9% (-0.1%)
Old DominionODU@Coastal CarolinaCCU	1.0% (-0.1%)	1.1% (+0.0%)
LouisianaUL@Southern MissUSM	1.1% (+0.0%)	1.0% (-0.1%)
South AlabamaUSA@Arkansas StateARST	1.1% (+0.0%)	1.0% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Texas State

Marshall

UL Monroe

Old Dominion

Southern Miss

Arkansas State

CCG: 10.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Marshall

CCG: 1.6% • Scenario: 57.6%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

24.5%

1.9%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

95.8%

0.1%

93.0%

0.1%

92.6%

<0.1%

70.0%

<0.1%

4.2%

1.4%

Any 2 losses

13.2%

2.9%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

97.4%

<0.1%

96.8%

<0.1%

96.7%

<0.1%

89.7%

<0.1%

86.4%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

26.3%

<0.1%

18.8%

<0.1%

18.0%

<0.1%

10.4%

0.1%

9.9%

0.1%

9.2%

<0.1%

8.8%

<0.1%

8.0%

<0.1%

4.6%

0.5%

3.8%

0.5%

3.6%

0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

1.2%

0.9%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com