Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L26-28 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L17-38 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L21-38 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-12 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L9-13 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:54% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:31% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:69% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:65% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:38% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:93% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 1.6% | 98.2% |
| 6-2 | 10.2% | 26.6% |
| 5-3 | 25.8% | 6.4% |
| 4-4 | 32.1% | 1.1% |
| 3-5 | 21.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 7.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.7% (-5.6%) | 11.1% (+4.8%) | |
| 6.4% (+0.1%) | 6.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.3% (+0.0%) | 6.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 6.0% (-0.3%) | 6.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 6.1% (-0.2%) | 7.9% (+1.6%) | |
| 5.8% (-0.5%) | 8.0% (+1.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Troy
App State
UL Monroe
Coastal Carolina
Southern Miss
Arkansas StateCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TroyCCG: 11.1% • Scenario: 53.6%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.2%
1.6%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29