Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W30-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L0-38 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-3 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W23-20 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L3-47 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:16% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:59% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:20% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:66% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:75% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:31% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 3.4% | 94.3% |
| 6-2 | 16.1% | 34.1% |
| 5-3 | 33.1% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 30.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 13.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 8.6% (-0.5%) | 9.8% (+0.7%) | |
| 8.7% (-0.4%) | 10.2% (+1.1%) | |
| 5.1% (-4.0%) | 30.7% (+21.6%) | |
| 9.0% (-0.0%) | 9.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.4% (+0.3%) | 9.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.0% (+0.9%) | 8.3% (-0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Eastern Michigan
Central MichiganBuffalo
Kent State
Akron
Northern IllinoisCCG: 54.7% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BuffaloCCG: 30.7% • Scenario: 15.5%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
94.3%
3.4%100.0%
<0.1%
98.8%
0.2%
98.8%
<0.1%
97.4%
1.0%97.2%
0.6%94.9%
0.1%
89.9%
1.4%Any 2 losses
34.1%
16.1%81.5%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%65.2%
0.3%63.4%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%60.3%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%56.1%
0.1%55.7%
0.4%50.8%
0.3%50.3%
0.5%50.0%
0.7%50.0%
<0.1%43.1%
2.3%41.1%
0.5%38.2%
0.7%37.1%
0.2%33.9%
0.9%28.8%
3.1%21.7%
5.6%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06