Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W51-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W30-27 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L10-41 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:96% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:76% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:10% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:39% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:48% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:82% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:79% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 1.0% | 55.1% |
| 6-2 | 11.6% | 3.1% |
| 5-3 | 31.9% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 35.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 16.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 3.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 1.3% (+0.4%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (-0.2%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.3%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.2%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (+0.9%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
LSU
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Kentucky
Mississippi StateCCG: 14.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OklahomaCCG: 1.3% • Scenario: 17.9%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
54.9%
1.0%Any 1 loss
3.3%
11.1%
61.8%
<0.1%
9.4%
0.3%7.9%
1.0%
5.9%
0.3%5.7%
0.2%3.3%
1.4%
2.1%
7.9%Any 2 losses
5.0%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06