Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
76.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-23 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W41-17 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L21-26 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W30-20 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:84% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:60% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:77% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:77% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 20.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 37.7% | 99.7% |
| 6-2 | 28.5% | 64.9% |
| 5-3 | 11.1% | 4.1% |
| 4-4 | 2.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 76.8% (+0.2%) | 76.3% (-0.3%) | |
| 76.0% (-0.6%) | 78.3% (+1.6%) | |
| 81.3% (+4.6%) | 51.4% (-25.3%) | |
| 76.8% (+0.1%) | 76.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 77.7% (+1.1%) | 76.3% (-0.3%) | |
| 77.3% (+0.7%) | 76.0% (-0.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Miami (OH)
Central MichiganToledo
Kent State
Akron
Northern IllinoisCCG: 85.9% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ToledoCCG: 81.3% • Scenario: 84.5%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
20.1%Any 1 loss
99.7%
37.7%
99.8%
5.7%
99.8%
6.0%99.7%
13.6%
99.5%
3.6%
99.4%
5.9%99.4%
1.4%99.4%
1.5%Any 2 losses
64.9%
28.5%84.5%
0.1%77.5%
0.3%75.5%
0.4%75.2%
0.9%75.0%
1.1%73.6%
0.3%73.2%
4.0%71.5%
0.4%69.6%
0.4%68.9%
0.5%67.8%
2.5%65.6%
1.1%64.2%
1.1%64.0%
0.4%63.9%
4.3%63.7%
0.5%62.5%
1.1%61.4%
3.9%60.0%
1.9%58.1%
1.8%43.6%
1.7%Any 3 losses
4.1%
11.1%15.3%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%8.6%
0.3%8.2%
<0.1%8.0%
0.2%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.2%
0.1%5.7%
0.3%5.5%
0.3%5.3%
0.2%5.0%
0.3%4.7%
0.7%4.5%
0.8%4.3%
0.1%4.0%
0.1%4.0%
0.4%3.9%
0.8%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
0.3%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
0.3%3.5%
1.3%3.4%
1.2%3.0%
0.3%2.6%
1.2%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.8%
0.6%0.9%
0.3%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06