OhioBobcats

3-2 T1st (1-0) in MAC

Data from 2024-10-06 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

31.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	@SyracuseSYR	L22-38
2	9/07	vsSouth AlabamaUSA	W27-20
3	9/14	vsMorgan StateMORG	W21-6
4	9/21	@KentuckyUK	L6-41
5	9/28	vsAkronAKR	W30-10
7	10/12	@Central MichiganCMU	Win prob:74%
8	10/19	@Miami (OH)M-OH	Win prob:39%
9	10/26	vsBuffaloBUF	Win prob:80%
11	11/06	@Kent StateKENT	Win prob:93%
12	11/13	vsEastern MichiganEMU	Win prob:71%
13	11/20	@ToledoTOL	Win prob:22%
14	11/29	vsBall StateBALL	Win prob:90%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	3.1%	100.0%
7-1	19.2%	92.9%
6-2	36.4%	28.5%
5-3	28.6%	0.5%
4-4	10.6%	0%
3-5	1.9%	0%
2-6	0.2%	0%
1-7	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

64.9%

17.8%

7.1%

5.4%

4.8%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Miami (OH)M-OH@Eastern MichiganEMU	30.5% (-1.0%)	32.9% (+1.5%)
OhioOHIO@Central MichiganCMU	37.8% (+6.4%)	13.4% (-18.1%)
ToledoTOL@BuffaloBUF	31.0% (-0.5%)	34.0% (+2.6%)
Ball StateBALL@Kent StateKENT	31.3% (-0.2%)	31.8% (+0.3%)
AkronAKR@Western MichiganWMU	32.9% (+1.5%)	31.0% (-0.4%)
Northern IllinoisNIU@Bowling GreenBGSU	33.0% (+1.6%)	30.1% (-1.3%)

Best Winner Combination for

Miami (OH)

Ohio

Buffalo

Kent State

Akron

Bowling Green

CCG: 48.7% • Scenario: 0.3%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Ohio

CCG: 37.8% • Scenario: 73.9%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

3.1%

Any 1 loss

92.9%

19.2%

98.0%

0.4%

97.8%

0.3%

96.5%

1.1%

96.2%

0.8%

95.0%

1.2%

92.7%

4.8%

91.8%

10.7%

Any 2 losses

28.5%

36.4%

87.1%

<0.1%

71.4%

<0.1%

66.0%

0.1%

62.8%

<0.1%

61.7%

0.1%

61.4%

0.1%

53.9%

0.3%

52.5%

0.4%

52.4%

0.4%

50.0%

<0.1%

48.5%

0.5%

45.5%

0.9%

41.5%

1.2%

41.2%

1.2%

41.1%

1.6%

39.2%

1.9%

36.0%

0.3%

32.9%

3.7%

32.4%

4.2%

26.4%

2.6%

18.1%

16.7%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com