Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W31-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L6-31 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L12-13 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W41-6 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W20-17 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:90% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:63% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:75% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:14% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:7% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:55% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 0.4% | 17.1% |
| 5-3 | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 42.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 37.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 10.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 0.5% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 86.7%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
16.5%
0.2%Any 1 loss
19.1%
0.2%22.7%
<0.1%18.7%
0.2%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06