Western KentuckyHilltoppers

3-2 T1st (1-0) in CUSA

Data from 2024-10-06 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

19.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	@AlabamaALA	L0-63
2	9/07	vsEastern KentuckyEKU	W31-0
3	9/14	@Middle TennesseeMTSU	W49-21
4	9/21	vsToledoTOL	W26-21
5	9/28	@Boston CollegeBC	L20-21
7	10/10	vsUTEPUTEP	Win prob:84%
8	10/16	@Sam HoustonSHSU	Win prob:35%
10	10/30	vsKennesaw StateKENN	Win prob:74%
11	11/09	@New Mexico StateNMSU	Win prob:66%
12	11/16	vsLouisiana TechLT	Win prob:80%
13	11/23	@LibertyLIB	Win prob:21%
14	11/30	vsJacksonville StateJXST	Win prob:37%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.8%	100.0%
7-1	7.5%	97.5%
6-2	23.8%	44.7%
5-3	34.2%	2.7%
4-4	23.7%	0%
3-5	8.4%	0%
2-6	1.5%	0%
1-7	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

Liberty

53.6%

Jacksonville State

29.4%

Sam Houston

16.0%

Florida International

0.8%

Kennesaw State

0.3%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
New Mexico StateNMSU@Jacksonville StateJXST	23.3% (+3.6%)	19.3% (-0.4%)
UTEPUTEP@Western KentuckyWKU	9.4% (-10.3%)	21.7% (+2.0%)
Middle TennesseeMTSU@Louisiana TechLT	19.7% (-0.0%)	19.7% (+0.0%)
Florida InternationalFIU@LibertyLIB	22.2% (+2.5%)	19.4% (-0.3%)

Best Winner Combination for

New Mexico State

Western Kentucky

Louisiana Tech

Florida International

CCG: 29.2% • Scenario: 0.5%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Western Kentucky

CCG: 21.7% • Scenario: 83.6%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.8%

Any 1 loss

97.5%

7.5%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

0.2%

99.8%

0.4%

99.7%

0.3%

98.1%

1.6%

96.9%

3.3%

96.1%

1.4%

Any 2 losses

44.7%

23.8%

98.8%

<0.1%

98.0%

0.1%

97.4%

<0.1%

97.0%

0.2%

96.5%

<0.1%

96.0%

<0.1%

80.4%

1.7%

77.8%

0.3%

77.1%

0.7%

76.8%

0.8%

74.3%

1.1%

73.4%

0.8%

73.2%

0.3%

72.2%

0.8%

70.8%

0.4%

70.7%

0.6%

69.3%

0.5%

66.5%

0.4%

32.1%

6.3%

30.5%

2.8%

17.5%

5.9%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com