Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-06
Conference Standings
| T1 |  UL MonroeULM | 2-0 | 4-1 | 2.0% | |
| T1 |  Texas StateTXST | 1-0 | 3-2 | 49.3% | |
| T1 |  LouisianaUL | 1-0 | 4-1 | 23.2% | |
| T1 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 1-0 | 4-1 | 5.4% | |
| T1 |  Arkansas StateARST | 1-0 | 3-2 | 5.2% | |
| T1 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 1-0 | 3-2 | 2.9% | |
| T1 |  MarshallMRSH | 1-0 | 3-2 | 2.3% | |
| 8 |  South AlabamaUSA | 1-1 | 2-4 | 19.6% | |
| T9 |  James MadisonJMU | 0-1 | 4-1 | 88.0% | |
| T9 |  Old DominionODU | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0.8% | |
| T9 |  TroyTROY | 0-2 | 1-5 | 0.6% | |
| T9 |  App StateAPP | 0-2 | 2-3 | 0.4% | |
| T9 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0.2% | |
| T9 |  Southern MissUSM | 0-1 | 1-4 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 88.0%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 34.4% (-53.6%) | 92.6% (+4.7%) | |
| 88.5% (+0.5%) | 87.5% (-0.4%) | |
| 87.6% (-0.4%) | 88.3% (+0.4%) | |
| 88.5% (+0.5%) | 87.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 88.0% (+0.0%) | 87.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 88.3% (+0.4%) | 87.9% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
James MadisonGeorgia SouthernGeorgia StateApp StateSouthern MissArkansas StateCCG: 96.0% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
James MadisonCCG: 92.6% • Scenario: 92.0%
Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU | - | 100% | 78.6% | 21.6% | 2.3% | - | 88.0% |
| Texas StateTXST | 100% | 71.4% | 34.4% | 10.9% | 2.1% | - | 49.3% |
| LouisianaUL | 100% | 61.4% | 27.6% | 7.6% | 1.1% | - | 23.2% |
| South AlabamaUSA | - | 94.4% | 13.6% | 1.4% | - | - | 19.6% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | 100% | 31.8% | 13.4% | 4.7% | 0.6% | - | 5.4% |
| Arkansas StateARST | 100% | 60.2% | 24.8% | 7.6% | 1.4% | - | 5.2% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | 100% | 52.1% | 24.1% | 6.7% | 0.5% | - | 2.9% |
| MarshallMRSH | 100% | 22.4% | 4.1% | 0.6% | <0.1% | - | 2.3% |
| UL MonroeULM | 100% | 67.8% | 25.7% | 3.7% | - | - | 2.0% |
| Old DominionODU | - | 93.7% | 17.2% | 3.9% | 0.4% | - | 0.8% |
| TroyTROY | - | - | 10.9% | 2.8% | 0.4% | - | 0.6% |
| App StateAPP | - | - | 93.6% | 20.5% | 1.9% | - | 0.4% |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | 100% | 20.8% | 2.5% | 0.3% | - | 0.2% |
| Southern MissUSM | - | - | 50.0% | 5.1% | 1.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU(0-1) | - | 62.7% | 30.5% | 6.1% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.6 |
| Texas StateTXST(1-0) | 11.8% | 33.7% | 33.7% | 16.0% | 4.1% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.3 |
| South AlabamaUSA(1-1) | - | 15.0% | 36.8% | 32.2% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% | - | 5.5 |
| LouisianaUL(1-0) | 3.0% | 15.3% | 30.3% | 29.7% | 16.2% | 4.7% | 0.7% | <0.1% | - | 5.4 |
| MarshallMRSH(1-0) | 0.2% | 4.9% | 19.4% | 32.0% | 27.9% | 12.6% | 2.7% | 0.3% | - | 4.7 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(1-0) | 0.3% | 4.2% | 16.7% | 30.5% | 28.8% | 15.0% | 4.1% | 0.4% | - | 4.5 |
| Arkansas StateARST(1-0) | <0.1% | 1.4% | 8.5% | 22.6% | 32.9% | 24.1% | 9.1% | 1.3% | - | 4.0 |
| UL MonroeULM(2-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 4.1% | 17.4% | 36.9% | 33.2% | 7.9% | - | - | 3.8 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.9% | 17.2% | 30.4% | 29.6% | 14.5% | 2.8% | - | 3.6 |
| TroyTROY(0-2) | - | - | 1.5% | 10.6% | 27.9% | 34.1% | 20.4% | 5.2% | 0.4% | 3.2 |
| Old DominionODU(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 1.6% | 8.6% | 22.4% | 31.0% | 24.5% | 10.2% | 1.6% | 3.0 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-1) | - | 0.0% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 13.7% | 28.9% | 31.9% | 18.0% | 4.0% | 2.4 |
| App StateAPP(0-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 1.1% | 7.4% | 23.6% | 36.0% | 25.3% | 6.6% | 2.0 |
| Southern MissUSM(0-1) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.6% | 5.3% | 21.3% | 41.6% | 31.0% | 1.0 |
Data from 2024-10-06