Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L26-28 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L17-38 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L21-38 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-12 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L9-13 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | L17-38 | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:26% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:62% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:58% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:54% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:33% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:90% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 1.5% | 10.9% |
| 5-3 | 10.6% | 2.8% |
| 4-4 | 27.9% | 0.4% |
| 3-5 | 34.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 20.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.8% (+0.2%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.1%) | 0.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.9%) | 0.4% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
App State
Southern Miss
Arkansas StateCCG: 10.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Arkansas StateCCG: 1.5% • Scenario: 13.5%
Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06