MarshallThundering Herd

3-2 T1st (1-0) in SBC

Data from 2024-10-06 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsStony BrookSTBK	W45-3
2	9/07	@Virginia TechVT	L14-31
4	9/21	@Ohio StateOSU	L14-49
5	9/28	vsWestern MichiganWMU	W27-20
6	10/05	vsApp StateAPP	W52-37
7	10/12	@Georgia SouthernGASO	Win prob:46%
8	10/17	vsGeorgia StateGAST	Win prob:67%
10	11/02	vsUL MonroeULM	Win prob:76%
11	11/09	@Southern MissUSM	Win prob:78%
12	11/16	vsCoastal CarolinaCCU	Win prob:49%
13	11/23	@Old DominionODU	Win prob:46%
14	11/30	@James MadisonJMU	Win prob:6%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.2%	100.0%
7-1	4.9%	22.4%
6-2	19.4%	4.1%
5-3	32.0%	0.6%
4-4	27.9%	0.1%
3-5	12.6%	0%
2-6	2.7%	0%
1-7	0.3%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

51.3%

21.6%

19.8%

5.6%

1.7%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Coastal CarolinaCCU@James MadisonJMU	4.8% (+2.5%)	2.1% (-0.2%)
MarshallMRSH@Georgia SouthernGASO	3.9% (+1.6%)	1.0% (-1.3%)
Old DominionODU@Georgia StateGAST	2.3% (-0.0%)	2.4% (+0.0%)
App StateAPP@LouisianaUL	2.2% (-0.1%)	2.4% (+0.0%)
Southern MissUSM@UL MonroeULM	2.4% (+0.1%)	2.3% (-0.0%)
Arkansas StateARST@Texas StateTXST	2.3% (-0.1%)	2.4% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Coastal Carolina

Marshall

Georgia State

App State

Southern Miss

Arkansas State

CCG: 30.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Marshall

CCG: 3.9% • Scenario: 45.7%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.2%

Any 1 loss

22.4%

4.9%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.3%

0.3%

89.9%

0.3%

63.4%

0.2%

4.6%

3.9%

Any 2 losses

7.3%

10.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

97.8%

<0.1%

96.7%

<0.1%

90.1%

<0.1%

89.3%

<0.1%

67.6%

<0.1%

62.7%

<0.1%

22.0%

0.1%

21.9%

0.1%

9.8%

0.3%

8.9%

0.1%

5.2%

0.3%

5.0%

1.2%

4.0%

0.3%

4.0%

1.1%

1.0%

2.0%

0.6%

4.6%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com