Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
23.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W34-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L33-41 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-38 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W23-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:80% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:52% | |
| 10 | 10/29 | Win prob:34% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:82% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:49% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:67% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:78% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 15.3% | 61.4% |
| 6-2 | 30.3% | 27.6% |
| 5-3 | 29.7% | 7.6% |
| 4-4 | 16.2% | 1.1% |
| 3-5 | 4.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 23.7% (+0.5%) | 23.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 22.9% (-0.3%) | 23.5% (+0.3%) | |
| 23.2% (-0.0%) | 23.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 23.0% (-0.2%) | 23.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 23.6% (+0.4%) | 23.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 32.8% (+9.6%) | 21.7% (-1.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Coastal Carolina
Marshall
Old Dominion
App State
Southern Miss
Arkansas StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Arkansas StateCCG: 32.8% • Scenario: 13.5%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.0%Any 1 loss
61.4%
15.3%100.0%
2.8%
100.0%
1.4%100.0%
0.7%
91.8%
0.9%78.0%
0.7%
64.3%
3.1%
20.0%
5.7%Any 2 losses
34.4%
24.3%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
1.4%93.2%
0.2%92.7%
0.8%79.1%
0.6%78.2%
0.2%64.1%
2.8%63.7%
0.8%43.0%
0.4%20.3%
5.5%20.2%
1.4%18.1%
0.3%11.2%
0.2%8.4%
1.5%6.5%
2.8%5.1%
0.8%2.8%
1.6%2.7%
0.7%1.0%
1.3%Any 3 losses
16.1%
13.9%100.0%
0.3%97.0%
0.2%77.5%
0.1%63.7%
0.7%43.3%
<0.1%42.7%
0.4%24.5%
0.3%21.6%
1.3%19.5%
<0.1%16.2%
0.2%10.3%
0.4%9.8%
<0.1%8.4%
1.4%7.4%
2.6%6.9%
0.7%6.0%
0.8%5.7%
0.2%4.6%
0.1%3.1%
0.6%2.4%
0.4%2.1%
1.5%2.1%
0.3%2.1%
1.2%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06