UL MonroeWarhawks

4-1 T1st (2-0) in SBC

Data from 2024-10-06 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsJackson StateJKST	W30-14
2	9/07	vsUABUAB	W32-6
4	9/21	@TexasTEX	L3-51
5	9/28	@TroyTROY	W13-9
6	10/05	vsJames MadisonJMU	W21-19
7	10/12	vsSouthern MissUSM	Win prob:74%
9	10/26	@South AlabamaUSA	Win prob:9%
10	11/02	@MarshallMRSH	Win prob:24%
11	11/09	vsTexas StateTXST	Win prob:16%
12	11/16	@AuburnAUB	Win prob:11%
13	11/23	@Arkansas StateARST	Win prob:33%
14	11/30	vsLouisianaUL	Win prob:22%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.0%	100.0%
7-1	0.5%	67.8%
6-2	4.1%	25.7%
5-3	17.4%	3.7%
4-4	36.9%	0%
3-5	33.2%	0%
2-6	7.9%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

89.7%

4.9%

2.5%

2.0%

1.0%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Coastal CarolinaCCU@James MadisonJMU	1.8% (-0.2%)	2.1% (+0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Georgia SouthernGASO	2.1% (+0.1%)	2.0% (-0.1%)
Old DominionODU@Georgia StateGAST	2.1% (+0.0%)	2.0% (-0.0%)
App StateAPP@LouisianaUL	1.9% (-0.1%)	2.1% (+0.0%)
Southern MissUSM@UL MonroeULM	0.8% (-1.3%)	2.5% (+0.4%)
Arkansas StateARST@Texas StateTXST	2.8% (+0.8%)	1.9% (-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Coastal Carolina

Marshall

Old Dominion

App State

UL Monroe

Arkansas State

CCG: 6.8% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UL Monroe

CCG: 2.5% • Scenario: 74.0%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

71.8%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

27.3%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

45.7%

0.9%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

93.3%

<0.1%

88.2%

<0.1%

78.9%

<0.1%

78.2%

0.2%

66.7%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

27.4%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

12.1%

<0.1%

10.1%

<0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

2.7%

0.1%

2.2%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

21.4%

4.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

90.8%

0.1%

80.2%

0.5%

58.6%

0.2%

50.0%

<0.1%

45.5%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

32.6%

0.3%

25.0%

<0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

21.4%

<0.1%

20.9%

<0.1%

16.9%

0.3%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

0.2%

16.2%

0.1%

8.0%

0.2%

7.1%

<0.1%

5.9%

0.2%

4.6%

0.6%

2.7%

<0.1%

2.5%

0.9%

2.4%

0.3%

2.3%

0.1%

1.4%

0.4%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com