LouisianaRagin' Cajuns

5-1 T1st (2-0) in SBC

Data from 2024-10-13 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

18.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsGramblingGRAM	W40-10
2	9/07	@Kennesaw StateKENN	W34-10
4	9/21	vsTulaneTULN	L33-41
5	9/28	@Wake ForestWAKE	W41-38
6	10/05	@Southern MissUSM	W23-13
7	10/12	vsApp StateAPP	W34-24
8	10/19	@Coastal CarolinaCCU	Win prob:58%
10	10/29	@Texas StateTXST	Win prob:28%
11	11/09	vsArkansas StateARST	Win prob:86%
12	11/16	vsSouth AlabamaUSA	Win prob:50%
13	11/23	vsTroyTROY	Win prob:68%
14	11/30	@UL MonroeULM	Win prob:76%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	3.6%	100.0%
7-1	18.8%	48.0%
6-2	34.3%	15.2%
5-3	28.9%	1.4%
4-4	12.0%	0%
3-5	2.2%	0%
2-6	0.2%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

93.7%

3.4%

1.4%

0.8%

0.7%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
TroyTROY@South AlabamaUSA	19.8% (+1.6%)	17.7% (-0.5%)
James MadisonJMU@Georgia SouthernGASO	18.3% (-0.0%)	18.4% (+0.1%)
Arkansas StateARST@Southern MissUSM	18.1% (-0.2%)	18.6% (+0.3%)
Georgia StateGAST@MarshallMRSH	18.4% (+0.2%)	18.2% (-0.1%)
LouisianaUL@Coastal CarolinaCCU	18.2% (-0.1%)	18.4% (+0.1%)
Texas StateTXST@Old DominionODU	18.3% (+0.0%)	18.1% (-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Troy

Georgia Southern

Arkansas State

Georgia State

Coastal Carolina

Old Dominion

CCG: 28.6% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Troy

CCG: 19.8% • Scenario: 25.5%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

3.6%

Any 1 loss

48.0%

18.8%

100.0%

2.6%

100.0%

1.7%

89.3%

1.1%

88.9%

0.6%

69.2%

3.5%

8.9%

9.3%

Any 2 losses

23.8%

21.8%

100.0%

1.2%

93.0%

0.4%

86.6%

0.8%

69.3%

2.5%

32.8%

0.5%

26.7%

0.3%

17.3%

0.2%

9.0%

6.6%

5.7%

1.7%

3.6%

0.6%

2.4%

4.5%

2.3%

1.5%

0.6%

1.1%

Any 3 losses

5.5%

7.4%

34.8%

0.4%

25.1%

0.2%

14.9%

0.1%

5.8%

1.2%

3.0%

0.4%

2.9%

3.2%

2.0%

1.0%

1.2%

0.8%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com