Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
35.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L22-38 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W27-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W21-6 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L6-41 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W30-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W27-25 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:31% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:72% | |
| 11 | 11/06 | Win prob:92% | |
| 12 | 11/13 | Win prob:76% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:29% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:90% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 22.6% | 95.0% |
| 6-2 | 40.5% | 24.9% |
| 5-3 | 25.4% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 6.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 64.8% (+29.1%) | 22.3% (-13.4%) | |
| 36.5% (+0.9%) | 35.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 36.4% (+0.7%) | 35.3% (-0.4%) | |
| 36.8% (+1.2%) | 34.6% (-1.1%) | |
| 37.3% (+1.6%) | 34.8% (-0.8%) | |
| 37.6% (+2.0%) | 35.5% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ohio
Ball State
Central Michigan
Toledo
Buffalo
Kent StateCCG: 84.6% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OhioCCG: 64.8% • Scenario: 31.5%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
4.0%Any 1 loss
95.0%
22.6%
97.7%
1.3%96.8%
0.5%
96.4%
8.8%95.9%
0.4%93.7%
10.0%92.0%
1.6%Any 2 losses
24.9%
40.5%75.7%
0.1%60.5%
<0.1%55.1%
0.1%54.8%
0.1%54.2%
0.5%46.7%
0.8%46.5%
0.2%44.6%
2.9%43.7%
0.9%41.4%
1.2%41.1%
1.0%36.8%
3.2%21.1%
3.4%18.0%
22.2%16.7%
3.9%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13