ToledoRockets

4-2 T4th (1-1) in MAC

Data from 2024-10-13 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

37.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsDuquesneDUQ	W49-10
2	9/07	vsMassachusettsMASS	W38-23
3	9/14	@Mississippi StateMSST	W41-17
4	9/21	@Western KentuckyWKU	L21-26
6	10/05	vsMiami (OH)M-OH	W30-20
7	10/12	@BuffaloBUF	L15-30
8	10/19	@Northern IllinoisNIU	Win prob:48%
9	10/26	vsBowling GreenBGSU	Win prob:71%
10	11/02	@Eastern MichiganEMU	Win prob:75%
12	11/12	vsCentral MichiganCMU	Win prob:90%
13	11/20	vsOhioOHIO	Win prob:71%
14	11/26	@AkronAKR	Win prob:91%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	14.9%	99.6%
6-2	36.4%	60.0%
5-3	32.2%	2.1%
4-4	13.4%	0%
3-5	2.8%	0%
2-6	0.3%	0%
1-7	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

34.5%

25.6%

19.7%

15.2%

4.9%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
OhioOHIO@Miami (OH)M-OH	35.5% (-1.8%)	38.2% (+0.9%)
Ball StateBALL@VanderbiltVAN	37.4% (+0.0%)	37.4% (+0.0%)
Central MichiganCMU@Eastern MichiganEMU	37.4% (-0.0%)	37.4% (+0.0%)
ToledoTOL@Northern IllinoisNIU	57.8% (+20.4%)	18.8% (-18.6%)
Western MichiganWMU@BuffaloBUF	39.4% (+2.0%)	36.4% (-1.0%)
Kent StateKENT@Bowling GreenBGSU	39.0% (+1.6%)	37.3% (-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Ohio

Ball State

Central Michigan

Toledo

Western Michigan

Kent State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Toledo

CCG: 57.8% • Scenario: 47.6%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.6%

14.9%

Any 1 loss

60.0%

36.4%

72.9%

1.7%

70.2%

1.5%

66.1%

6.0%

63.3%

4.9%

57.8%

16.4%

51.4%

6.0%

Any 2 losses

2.1%

32.2%

5.6%

0.2%

4.8%

0.5%

4.2%

0.6%

3.3%

0.6%

3.2%

0.7%

3.0%

2.0%

2.8%

2.0%

2.6%

1.9%

2.2%

0.5%

2.2%

5.5%

2.2%

0.7%

2.1%

1.6%

1.7%

2.5%

1.5%

6.6%

1.3%

6.5%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com