Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
46.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W30-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L0-38 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-3 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W23-20 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L3-47 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W30-15 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:67% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:28% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:75% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:47% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:92% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 24.1% | 96.9% |
| 6-2 | 37.7% | 49.1% |
| 5-3 | 24.7% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 48.1% (+1.2%) | 46.4% (-0.5%) | |
| 45.5% (-1.4%) | 47.1% (+0.2%) | |
| 47.5% (+0.6%) | 46.7% (-0.3%) | |
| 46.1% (-0.9%) | 47.7% (+0.8%) | |
| 22.9% (-24.0%) | 58.5% (+11.6%) | |
| 49.3% (+2.3%) | 46.8% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ohio
Ball State
Central Michigan
Northern IllinoisBuffalo
Kent StateCCG: 73.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BuffaloCCG: 58.5% • Scenario: 67.4%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
4.9%Any 1 loss
96.9%
24.1%97.6%
1.1%
97.5%
2.4%
97.3%
1.7%
97.2%
5.6%96.9%
0.5%96.6%
12.8%Any 2 losses
49.1%
37.7%77.3%
0.1%69.2%
0.5%69.0%
0.4%68.6%
1.9%67.2%
0.2%66.9%
1.2%65.2%
0.1%58.4%
0.8%55.5%
2.7%55.4%
0.5%49.6%
1.1%47.8%
4.3%44.9%
14.6%44.4%
2.8%43.6%
6.3%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13