UL MonroeWarhawks

5-1 T1st (3-0) in SBC

Data from 2024-10-13 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsJackson StateJKST	W30-14
2	9/07	vsUABUAB	W32-6
4	9/21	@TexasTEX	L3-51
5	9/28	@TroyTROY	W13-9
6	10/05	vsJames MadisonJMU	W21-19
7	10/12	vsSouthern MissUSM	W38-21
9	10/26	@South AlabamaUSA	Win prob:11%
10	11/02	@MarshallMRSH	Win prob:27%
11	11/09	vsTexas StateTXST	Win prob:14%
12	11/16	@AuburnAUB	Win prob:13%
13	11/23	@Arkansas StateARST	Win prob:44%
14	11/30	vsLouisianaUL	Win prob:24%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.0%	100.0%
7-1	0.9%	66.1%
6-2	7.3%	21.7%
5-3	25.9%	2.1%
4-4	42.0%	0%
3-5	23.8%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

94.2%

3.3%

1.4%

0.7%

0.4%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
TroyTROY@South AlabamaUSA	3.5% (+0.8%)	2.5% (-0.3%)
James MadisonJMU@Georgia SouthernGASO	2.8% (+0.0%)	2.6% (-0.1%)
Arkansas StateARST@Southern MissUSM	2.8% (+0.1%)	2.6% (-0.1%)
Georgia StateGAST@MarshallMRSH	2.6% (-0.2%)	2.8% (+0.1%)
LouisianaUL@Coastal CarolinaCCU	2.7% (-0.1%)	2.8% (+0.1%)
Texas StateTXST@Old DominionODU	2.8% (-0.0%)	2.8% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Troy

Georgia Southern

Arkansas State

Georgia State

Louisiana

Old Dominion

CCG: 8.5% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Troy

CCG: 3.5% • Scenario: 25.5%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

70.1%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

81.1%

<0.1%

72.2%

<0.1%

9.7%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

54.8%

1.4%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

83.7%

0.1%

81.8%

0.3%

75.0%

<0.1%

70.1%

0.1%

26.7%

<0.1%

19.2%

0.1%

19.0%

0.2%

14.3%

<0.1%

9.8%

<0.1%

3.5%

0.1%

Any 3 losses

31.6%

4.5%

98.0%

0.1%

82.6%

0.9%

69.7%

0.3%

31.1%

<0.1%

20.5%

0.1%

19.3%

0.7%

15.6%

0.2%

15.5%

0.4%

10.1%

0.1%

4.7%

0.3%

3.1%

0.4%

3.0%

1.0%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com